Coronavirus Crisis

What we have to fear . . .

Another Take by Peter G. Pollak 2020 Election, Constitutional Rights, Coronavirus Crisis, Donald Trump, Elections, National Politics, President Trump, Supreme Court

What will America look like if Joe Biden wins the election November 3rd and the Democrats take control of the U.S. Senate?  Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi and Kamala Harris have promised measures so drastic that they should strike fear in the hearts of Americans who care about democracy and the protections afforded individuals in the U.S. Constitution.

A Democrat Senate could grant statehood to the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, which would add four Senators, all of whom presumably would be Democrats. This step would not only result in several immediate catastrophes but would throw any balance between the two parties into the gutter. One party states are one step away from into one-party dictatorships.

It would mean the end to the Electoral College, a system that protects the residents of the less populous states from majority large state domination in all future elections. It would also likely result in the Democrats packing the Supreme Court with a sufficient number of new justices to guarantee none of their policies would be overturned by the Court.

Further, the totalitarian impulses of the Democrat Party would be institutionalized reducing freedoms of the First Amendment to the Constitution, such that government would have the power to restrain unpopular speech and religious practices if they conflict with government authority. These may seem far-fetched, but let me assure you they are not. All have come before the Supreme Court and were one vote away from being entrenched by the Court. Examples of governors implementing such restrictions during the pandemic should demonstrate how close we are as a nation to losing the freedoms that have stood us in good stead for 234 years.

On the other side, stands Donald Trump who is accused of being a racist, a Nazi, a liar, and a million other negatives, but accusations are all the Democrats and the media have going for them. His policies have won over millions of adherents by achieving a great economy prior to the arrival of the pandemic and providing benefits and services to Blacks, Hispanics, women, the elderly and infirm. If re-elected he will stand up to the Democrats’ wet dreams of unbridled power. That’s the choice Americans face. That’s the decision you must make on November 3rd.

Are Billionaires the Problem?

Another Take by Peter G. Pollak Business Practices, Coronavirus Crisis, Donald Trump, National Economy, Religion, Socialism, Uncategorized ,

Tara Isabella Burton, a columnist for the Religious News Service, wants to take advantage of the coronavirus pandemic to attack the free enterprise system that produced billionaires like Bill Gates and Oprah Winfrey. (Washington Post, May 17, 2020, B4) She would blame the conditions that created the most productive economic engine the world had ever seen with the lowest unemployment in half a century for requiring assistance of billionaires in fighting the virus.

The price of the freedoms we enjoy in the U.S. Burton asserts is that one in six children grow up in poverty, schools are unequally funded, and poor adults have healthcare issues. Even without pointing out that conditions in countries that value the collective good over individual rights are much, much worse for the majority than in the U.S.––vide Russia, China, Cuba and Venezuela––Burton must ignore the positives our system has provided its citizenry in order to focus on the negatives.

She doesn’t mention that life expectancy in the U.S. has increased steadily and was at 78.87 in 2018 up EIGHT years from 1970. She doesn’t mention that poverty is never an obstacle keeping academically talented young people out of college and on a path to the middle class. She doesn’t mention that senior citizens are healthier by far than their parents’ and grandparents’ generations, or that medical care has enabled cancer patients to live many years longer than just a generation ago.

Instead Burton relies on the language of the old Left. Telling us that we “worship” individual billionaires, and that the “collective good” has been sacrificed on the myth of the bootstrapper, and that “our obsession with freedom leaves behind our most vulnerable.” She also joins the media chorus claiming social conditions and an inept federal government are responsible for making the pandemic “so dire.”

Au contraire, Ms. Burton. Measuring the country’s response to the pandemic is as useful an exercise as the models estimating how many would have died if we did nothing. There’s no standard against which we can compare how we’ve done except to say we weren’t ready, we made mistakes, and yet we rallied and we are winning the battle. A vaccine might not be available by the end of the year, yet in record time the American manufacturing community provided life-saving equipment while the scientific community paved the way to creating a vaccine faster than for any other crisis in human history.

I would venture that in no country on Planet Earth are billionaires less admired than in the U.S. where the owner of a diner, a dairy farm or a bookstore feels just as important to society as the founders of Twitter or PayPal. We accept the existence of billionaires because we know the price we would have to pay of preventing people from rising that far above their inherent individual value would be the loss of the opportunity to rise out of poverty, to be elected to high office, or follow one’s dream career be that ballet dancer, special ed teacher or sports star. It’s a price Americans are not willing to pay because we know society as a whole benefits when each of us is responsible in large part for our successes and our failures. That’s what makes us Americans.

Alert: The Democrat Party is waging war against the private sector workforce!

Another Take by Peter G. Pollak Coronavirus Crisis, Elections, National Economy, Uncategorized ,

There’s a war being waged on America’s private sector workforce by the Democrat Party. By keeping schools closed they are making it impossible for parents to go to their jobs. By keeping businesses closed they are causing thousands of small businesses to go bankrupt costing millions jobs. But the public sector is being paid…and now they want even more money to pay the public sector workforce who of course will be happy not just to vote for Sleep Joe, but also to donate and make phone calls on his behalf.

It’s time for parents to fight back. If your schools are not going to open in the fall, you need to take over the school buildings and throw the criminals out! Hire your own teachers and send your kids to school!

Mark my words: Inflation is coming

Another Take by Peter G. Pollak Business Practices, China, Coronavirus Crisis, Local Government, National Economy, Uncategorized

Mark Levin recently debated Arthur Laffer, the well-known supply side economist, as to whether inflation would be an outcome of the shutdown of the American economy. Laffer didn’t think so; Levin predicted it would be a problem and he’s right. The reasons are simple to understand. In economics, price is a function of supply and demand. Gold is rare; people want it; the price is high.

Why will the American economy suffer from inflation? The answer is simple. Conditions resulting in a supply problem for many products and services are already evident.

* Meat producers are having to destroy both mature and young cattle and pigs because shutting down restaurants and institutional purchasers has depressed demand. The impact will result in higher meat prices when restaurants reopen, as it will take months before producers are able to gear up. Some farmers may go out of business as a result of the lack of a market for their livestock. That too will affect supply.

* Farmers are having to let produce go unharvested due to decreased demand, but more important in the future is likely to be a lack of labor––a function of several factors that will remain in place even after the virus restrictions are lifted. Prices of products from other countries will also go up as they will be battling the same problems we’ll be facing.

* Restaurants are being asked to reduce seating when they reopen. That will result in higher prices as food prices will be higher and restaurants will need to earn more per customer to cover expenses.

* Products sourced from China are very likely to cost more for a variety of reasons including the fact that Chinese factories will need to make up for lost sales during the pandemic.

* The U.S. is looking to move production of medical equipment and pharmaceuticals out of China back to their home countries to prevent a reoccurrence of supply problems that arose at the beginning stages of the crisis. Given the cost of labor is higher in the U.S., products for everything from hand sanitizers to ventilators to pharmaceuticals will be higher than in the past.

* All other products produced overseas, such as clothing, will be higher as a result of the impact on suppliers––some will have been bankrupt, while others will need to raise prices to catch up.

* Labor prices in the U.S. will be higher in many industries as people will be trying to catch up for lost income.

* Governments may have to raise taxes and fees to avoid reducing services.

Higher prices in some cases will be temporary, but high prices has an affect like a tidal wave. When the price of labor, products and services increase, the user of those products must also raise prices. I don’t know what percentage of manufacturing equipment is made in China or other low-wage countries, but if hammers, lithium-ion batteries and robots cost more, those costs will have to be passed along to consumers.

Complicating this is the fact that consumers impacted by the shutdown will have less money to spend. Having lower sales, sellers must raise prices to achieve the income they need to stay in business.

Get ready, folks. Inflation is on its way. Sorry, Mr. Laffer. Your curve won’t solve this problem.

 

Garbage in, garbage out

Another Take by Peter G. Pollak Coronavirus Crisis, Local Government, National Economy, National Politics, Uncategorized

Many of you might remember the early days of computer programming when the mantra was “garbage in, garbage out.” That needs to be applied to today to computer models predicting the severity of the coronavirus. A few examples should suffice.

The authors of an op-ed in Sunday’s Washington Post admit as much when they quote Anthony Fauci saying “Models are as good as the assumptions you put into them” at the end of an article in which they expose how sketchy the assumptions are that have been put into such models as the one out of University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation that Fauci and others have been relying on.

One of the factors that is not included in any of these models that viruses mutate. A study from China (which of course would need to be replicated) found thirty strains of the virus that causes COVID-19. The author writes, “Sars-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity.” The implication of that finding is that the reason some people who are otherwise healthy get very sick and die while others are asymptomatic might be that the strain they came in contact with might be more virulent.

The models are being used today to justify extreme social distancing including shutting of all but “essential” businesses in most states. Suggestions that some states and counties can ease these restrictions have been met with outcries, claiming to do so invites more deaths. The problem with that assertion is that unless one knows FOR CERTAIN the number of people who have been infected by the virus the fear of tens of thousands of additional deaths is not backed by fact.

Some recent evidence suggests more people have had the virus that previously known, including people who had mild cases or who are asymptomatic. But the bottom line is we don’t have sufficient answers to make clear-cut policy decisions. As a result, governors and other elected officials are playing safe––not wanting to be blamed for causing deaths.

Unfortunately, there is a price to pay for being overly cautious in terms of millions of people’s livelihoods. The longer the country is shut down the harder it will be to get back up and the longer it will take. The exact price also cannot be calculated because we don’t have those answers either.

We do know there is a limit to how long the federal government can print money and distribute it to everyone in the country. One factor is that the debt even at zero interest will have been repaid. Another more immediate factor is that printing more money could result in rapid inflation––which coupled with scarcity of certain goods will have its own social cost.

My advice to governors is not to take the entire burden on yourself. With the assistance of your legislature and executive agency personnel, set broad guidelines for when certain types of businesses can reopen in each county of your state. That way when deaths occur you can deflect the blame and justify the policy. Some states are facing bankruptcy. It’s time to fight that war as well as the one brought about by the virus.

What’s needed in the State of Maryland to get back to normal?

Another Take by Peter G. Pollak Business Practices, Coronavirus Crisis, Local Government, Uncategorized

The coronavirus crisis has hit Maryland hard like it has other states––no, not the number of cases which totals only 8,225 as of April 12 or deaths which number only 235, but in terms of the shutdown of the economy. The pain Marylanders feel is in the number of people out of work (more than 125,000 have applied for unemployment), the number of businesses whose existence is threatened and the closure of schools, parks and other public facilities.

Any death due to the illness is sad and unfortunate, but Maryland is not a hot spot and is unlikely to become one. The state’s number of new cases started to decline this past week and only 1,709 people are currently hospitalized due to the virus. The disease is not overly taxing Maryland’s healthcare system.

Assuming the numbers will continue to decline, it is incumbent on state, city and county officials to begin to put in place concrete plans to remove restrictions and allow people to begin to resume normal activities while still exercising caution and common sense.

I’m calling for the governor to set up a bi-partisan body of public officials to put in place guidelines for when restrictions can be lifted. Right now only businesses designated as essential may remain open and these must enforce distancing and other safety measures.

What would resumption recommendations look like? Here’s an example: When the number of new cases in a county drop below 60 for two or three days in a row, there should be a list of businesses that are allowed to re-open. Then when the number drops below 40 a day in that jurisdiction, the list should include other businesses that can re-open. For example, retail establishments where the same safety measures employed now by pharmacies and grocery stores would apply might fall into the first camp. The first list might also include dentists who were forced to close under the assumption their masks would be needed. Restaurants, hair salons and the like might be allowed to reopen after the second milestone is reached.

When number of new cases in a county drops below 25 a day, public parks, golf courses, basketball courts and other sports settings should be allowed to re-open and education officials should be strongly advised to resume normal school activities.

Fourteen Maryland counties have had fewer than 100 cases. All social restrictions should be removed in those counties immediately.

Until a vaccine is developed and distributed widely, it is likely we will continue to see coronavirus cases resulting in hospitalizations and death. There has to be a point, however, when we as a society determine the fear of the disease should not result in the destruction of our economy. Each year tens of thousands of people die from the flu in the U.S. We don’t ask our public officials to restrict our behavior as a result of the flu. We recommend that people get flu shots and act intelligently when ill.

The president has stated that the cure should not be worse than the disease. For Maryland that means public officials need to act now to enable residents to resume normal activities sooner rather than later.

 

Why reporters don’t report contrary data

Another Take by Peter G. Pollak Business Practices, Coronavirus Crisis, Donald Trump, Media Bias, President Trump, Uncategorized , ,

What should a national newspaper do when there is credible information that doesn’t fit their narrative? They should report that info. Right?! What did the Amazon Post do when publishing, “Trump relies on impulse in push for unproven drug” in today’s issue? They complete ignored conflicting data.

The goal of the article was to blast Trump for going against science. That meant the reporters needed to find a bunch of “experts” saying that there’s no scientific data supporting the use of hydroxychloroquine to combat covid-19. The problem is that there is credible evidence that this drug which has been used to prevent and treat malaria and to treat lupus sufferers can be effective in reducing the severity of covid-19.

Dr. Mehmet Oz reported Monday on the Sean Hannity radio show at 4:00 p.m. EST and again on his TV show that data from a French study moves this drug off the anecdotal status. Here’s what he said on his own show:

“. . . the word ‘anecdote’ is used a lot — that is an incorrect description of where this medication is now. There’s no question it’s not proven to be beneficial in the large clinical trials we expect in America, and certainly the FDA and medical societies would desire. But these have been supported with case studies. I just got off the phone with Didier Raoult, who’s the well-respected French physician who’s done a lot of this work. Thousand series of patients — 1,000 patients in a row he’s treated, and he’s not published yet, he’s going to be published over the next two weeks. But he’s got seven people who have died, they were all older and had other co-morbidities, 20 people have gone to the ICU of that trial. Now, it’s not a randomized trial, but that’s not anecdotal. The data from China we discussed last week for the first time on Fox & Friends also, pretty evident that it’s a randomized trial. That is the opposite, if I had to create an opposite of an anecdote. So when those words get thrown around and I saw us this morning in some of the papers, it’s an error on the part of journalists.”

Not only is there evidence hydroxychloroquine helps covid-19 patients, there also strong evidence that those who are taking it will not contract the virus. Dr. Oz reported that one of the top rheumatoid arthritis doctors in the country reported that none of his 1500 patients have come down with covid-19. A larger study is being done to verify that no one in the country who has been taking the drug for lupus has come down with the virus.

Why didn’t the Amazon Post report those facts? If you press them they’ll probably say the relied on their own experts or some such garbage. The truth is that they weren’t looking for evidence that conflicted with their thesis.

P.S.: What’s wrong with mainstream journalism today? The reporters are sent into the field with a thesis to prove rather than to seek all the news that’s fit to print.