How Lies Become Facts in American Media

It is now taken as fact that the American people are unhappy with Donald Trump and the Republican Party. Evidence for this is polling data and two elections—one in Alabama where Roy Moore lost in large part due to accusations by women concerning his behavior thirty plus years ago and the other, the gubernatorial race in Virginia.

Those who tout Virginia’s gubernatorial election result as a sign of a Democrat turn around ought to test the contents of their hookas because the smoke they are exhaling is nothing but thin air.

To understand why the victory for Democrat gubernatorial candidate Northam is not a repudiation of President Trump, take a look at two key data sets: the actual vote numbers and the exit poll data generated by Edison Media Research.

The raw data shows that Northam did slightly better than Hillary Clinton who won Virginia in 2016 by winning 53.9 percent of the vote to her 49.7. Gillespie’s 45.0 percent, however, was virtually identical to Donald Trump’s 44.4 2016 total.

Although Gillespie lost, he did no worse in what must be considered a Democrat majority state than Trump did. Gains by Democrats in the Virginia State House confirm the fact that Virginia is a blue state.

Looking at the exit polls we see additional data that show Trump and Gillespie pulled very similar numbers.

While Trump won 52% of the male vote, Gillespie got 50%. The two won identical percentages of the female vote—39%.

By race, Trump did slightly better with “White” voters—59% to 57% while Gillespie did slightly better with “Blacks” 12% to 9% and Hispanics 32% to 30%.

The bottom line is the Trump presidency did not hurt Gillespie. Democrat candidates for statewide office should win in Virginia unless they run a Hillary type campaign or face an usual candidate, which Gillespie was not. He was a mainstream Republican, unable to give independent and Democrat voters a reason to come out for his candidacy.

Anyone who thinks Virginia’s results provide implications for 2018 or 2020 are fooling themselves as well as anyone who listens to them.

Is Bibi Netanyahu a 21st Century Churchill?

You don’t have to be a student of history to learn the lesson of The Darkest Hour,” the story of Winston Churchill’s struggle to save the British Empire when Hitler’s armies threatened to overrun their entire army on the French side of the English Channel. The movie provides insight into a critical moment in world history––when decisive leadership by Winston Churchill and heroic sacrifices by the English people saved three hundred thousand soldiers and in the process prevented Hitler from invading Great Britain––a tragedy that could have irreparably altered the outcome of the Second World War.

Reflecting on critical moments in history, it’s easy to imagine that what needs to be done is obvious, but that’s rarely the case. Churchill had to overcome personal doubts as well as fierce opposition mainly from members of his own party to stick with a plan he knew would cost lives. Lesser considerations often assume great proportion in the minds of those who cannot fathom the seriousness of a situation. That indeed may be the case today with regard to Israel where so many Jews both in Israel and in the diaspora fail to recognize or give sufficient weight to the precariousness of Israel’s existence.

While critics attack Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for one thing or another, it is remarkable that he is able to keep his eye on the ball––focusing on the Dunkirk level threat that Iran’s hegemony in the region represents for the state of Israel.

Britain and France were unprepared for the speed by which the German army plowed through Belgium and defeated the French, thereby endangering the entire British army. It is extremely rare for people to see existential threats before they materialize, which is why I argue the threat Iran poses to the state of Israel is not hypothetical or overblown, and why it must be Israel’s top priority.

The threat not only comes from Iran’s potential as a nuclear power––the result of the terrible deal President Obama negotiated, the threat to Israel’s survival exists on a second front in the form of Iran’s surrogate Hezbollah. The later organization, which now controls much of Lebanon, was allowed to finance the expansion of its military and political power in recent decades by money laundering and cocaine sales, practices that the Obama administration knew about and allowed to continue in order to assure Obama could deliver his signature billion dollar get out of jail nuclear card to Iran’s autocratic government.

While Netanyahu recognizes the Iran/Hezbollah threat, so many others in Israel and in the U.S. are focused on lesser matters, including the fact that Netanyahu has been forced to ally himself with the most conservative religious parties in Israel and as a result to concede to some of their demands.

One example of a lesser issue whose proponents seem willing to define as the most important matter facing Israel’s future is the issue of women praying at the Western Wall. Netanyahu backed down on an earlier agreement that would have resolved this issue in order to appease the ultra-orthodox members of his government. To put it bluntly those who are unhappy with the collapse of the prior agreement need to ask themselves how they would feel if their efforts resulted in a situation where no Jews—men or women—could pray at the Western Wall––a potential outcome if Israel is not led by someone who understands the Iranian/Hezbollah threat.

The same question must be asked of those who are attacking Netanyahu for minor personal indiscretions––an example of a common political disease––expecting one’s leaders to be godlike with no past indiscretions or mistakes. History shows us the danger of such thinking as those men and women who have the courage to act in moments of crises are always people who have learned from past mistakes. The perfect human would be unable to see the potential evil facing him having never been exposed to wrong-doing (or admitting such), which is why so few are capable of greatness. Most of us view ourselves as perfect, never suffering doubts or admitting to past failures. We cannot imagine evil’s winning and thus bring that very outcome into play.

Eventually Bibi Netanyahu will be replaced––as Churchill was after he successfully prevented Hitler from conquering his country. Will pressure from the diaspora over lesser issues and internal politics result in the election of a Neville Chamberlain like person or will the people once again ignore the media and their American cousins and vote for someone who can separate the existential wheat from petty concerns chaff? Time will tell.